Vienna - Mideast turmoil, a weak global economy and divisions to raise crude production promise to make OPEC this week meeting one of the most volatile in recent history or not.
Ultimately, the Group of 12 countries is probably opt to increase the output level to reduce international concerns about the high price of oil. But some influential members are looking to increase the price of crude oil.
Iraqi oil Minister Abdul - Karim Elaibi, said to journalists Tuesday that a price of $100 and $120 per barrel is "reasonable". Who is reached or exceeds the current prices and is considered too high by the major catch oil consuming countries with their economies. And it goes against the efforts made by the cartel, OPEC Saudi Arabia to push prices downward.
OPEC oil ministers are often faced with easier choices at regular meetings, where they seek agreement on how to pump and sell to the rest of the world. But mixed signals before the meeting on Wednesday to take difficult decisions.
Disorders of the Libya and the Yemen threatens to destabilize the large region's oil-producing nations. Normally, the two countries produce less than 4% of the world's oil needs, and Saudi Arabia, and other increased profitability to offset much of the deficit. But the concerns that the violence could spread to more large producers and seriously cut in world production has caused jitters, crude exporters and United States, China and other consumers with enormous needs.
The precarious state of the world economy is an another wild card of talks this week.
Weak housing and employment reports in the United States, added to the gloom spread by the attempts of Europe to bail out Governments and the merger of the Japan post-Fukushima. Its current price of about $100 a barrel, crude reference may be too expensive for the nations of ends, a worsening of the situation, and resulting economic difficulty less demand for oil.
But with the spraying of savings by using less energy, raising output to lower prices can also flood the market, leading to a surplus which can result in prices below $ 80 per barrel. Even this reference, which is preferred by the Saudis and other moderate OPEC members is considered as too weak by price hawks Iran and the Venezuela.
Analysts noted that it y much at stake, but that the contradictory signals facing Ministers are creating uncertainty.
Johannes Benigni of energy JBC called meeting of OPEC on Wednesday "an event key..." (which) could be in fact the most important (OPEC) gathering of the Decade. "Energy analyst IHS Catherine Hunter described as" one of the most difficult sessions for some time, in terms of gauging fundamental market and navigating the Intergroup policy. "
In one such context, OPEC - supplies of oil, which represents approximately one-third of the planet - cannot be regarded as indécise. Ehsan Ul - Haq, with KBC Energy Economics, said the world "would like a clear signal" of OPEC that it is ready to stabilize markets and to alleviate the concerns of the price will lead still above.
The 11 members of OPEC are already exceeding their current production quotas. Their production is about 26.15 million barrels per day – approximately 1.3 million barrels above the daily target of production overall 24,85 million barrels a day OPEC agreed two years ago.
Opens the way to what would be a relatively painless decision - the meeting may choose to raise the ceiling for output levels of real output of about 26 million barrels per day. Add the daily 2.7 million barrels produced by Iraq, which is not bound by quotas, and OPEC could lead to more than 29 million barrels per day on the market.
Head of energy JBC Benigni expects a similar scenario. Production of OPEC forecasts it will be approximately 30.5 million barrels per day by end of 2011, assuming that the members of the nations producing above their individual ceilings, as usual.
Once more, the Saudis - which represent approximately one third of OPEC's production - will be the main champions of hiking the ceiling of production to drive down prices, in their opinion that should be the crude extraction between $70 and $80 per barrel. Oppose is Iran, producer of no. 2 of the OPEC, which argues that world inventories are already high and an increase in output targets would lead to a glut and a corresponding price decline.
"There is no need for any increase in the performance of the production by OPEC", Mohamad Ali Khatibi, a senior Iranian OPEC delegate, told Iranian State television Monday.
While the Saudis are supported by the countries of the Gulf, the weakness of the US dollar could generate support for the Iran. The price of oil is $, which means that producers lose whenever the greenback slides in value.
Ul Haq noted that the Iran and assailed Government of Libya - which has little sympathy for the United States and other consumer oil Western choirs insurgents seeking to overthrow Muammar Gaddafi - will send new Ministers to the meeting.
The two should be severed price hawks. That said Ul - Haq, "could result in very long discussions between the group led by Saudi Arabia and the group led by the Iran."
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George Jahn is available at http://twitter/georgejahn
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Margaret Childs in Vienna and Ali Akbar Dareini in Tehran has contributed to this report.
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