Brussels/BERLIN (Reuters) - powerful performances by the German and French economies propelled the growth in the eurozone well above forecasts in the first quarter while also highlighting the gap between the high and low block.
The monetary area 17-nation expanded by 0.8 percent in the first three months of the year, data showed Friday, fueled by the stunning 1.5% of GDP in Germany, while the French economy grew by 1.0 %driven in part by consumer demand.
Economists had expected a 0.6% euro-zone growth. Analysts said better than expected - despite the recession return Portugal, data Greece still buried under a mountain of debts - reinforced the case to higher rates of European Central Bank in July, which would be the second this year.
Germany and the France represent domestic product gross area almost half. The two nations rebounded to a modest showing in the last quarter of 2010 when bad weather hit the exit.
The euro received a lift of the German numbers and jumped to touch $1.4330 briefly on the release of the number of the euro area.
"It is almost certainly as good as it gets for the euro area, growth seems likely to moderate in the coming months, said Howard Archer, Economist at IHS Global Insight."
The European Commission forecast quarter quarter, Eurozone growth would slow to 0.3% in the second quarter and then stabilize to 0.4% for the next two quarters.
"Nevertheless, it is now seems a very decent chance that the growth of the GDP of the euro zone will be up to 2.0% in 2011, for the first time since 2007," Archer said.
The European Commission was less optimistic, sticking to its projection of February in the growth of 1.6% this year, with inflation above target of two per cent of the ECB. In 2012, he expects a growth of 1.8% euro area.
By contrast in Germany, a top economic adviser to the Government, Wolfgang Franz, told ARD television, the country's economy could increase by 3 percent or more this year. The Commission expects German growth of 2.6% this year.
Analysts were somewhat more pessimistic on the France, saying that it was probably his high water mark.
"The recent surge in oil prices is likely to erode the purchasing power of households, while he also began the company profits, leaving its mark on the consumption and investment." In addition, we anticipate upcoming austerity more and more to the forefront, "said Joost Beaumont, an economist at ABN-AMRO.
Driveway Italy bucked the trend, only 0.1% in the first quarter, posting the same low rate as the last three months of 2010. The Government provides a 1.1% growth this year and the only 1.0% Commission.
For more indebted eurozone economies, strong growth is a distant dream.
The economy of the Portugal reduced 0.7% in the first quarter, sending the economy into recession. His Government has admitted that, after a rescue plan, its economy will decrease this year and next. The Commission expects contraction of 2.2% in 2011 and 1.8% in 2012.
The Greece actually achieved quarterly growth - 0.8% - for the first time since the end of 2009, but following a vicious contraction of 2.8% in the last quarter of 2010.
The Commission expects to Athens to announce new austerity measures this year to achieve the objectives of its rescue plan. It provides that the economy decreases 3.5 percent this year if the policies are unchanged, but anticipates a growth of 1.1% in 2012.
Spain has won support for its efforts to convince the markets he can avoid being sucked into the debt crisis - more expanded economy 0.8 percent on an annualized basis, its rate strong since the second quarter of 2008. On the quarter, growth was 0.3 per cent.
ECB SET FOR HIKING IN THE SUMMER?
Analysts, has declared that the ECB appeared ready to increase rates again in July, after having traveled for the first time in two years last month, despite the gap between rich and poor in Europe.
"The euro area will have a decent first half of the year... and I am sure that when going to the meeting of June assume no crisis in the financial sector by then, the ECB will prepare the ground for an increase in rates in July," said Ken WattretEconomist at BNP Paribas in London.
Thursday, the Monetary Fund International said that the debt crisis could extend even to core nations.
In his last report on Europe, the Fund said it is willing to give to the Greece more aid if the country needed and urges the ECB to adopt a cautious approach to the increase in rates, adding the tactic is to provide free liquidity of limit to the banks of the euro area may be necessary to be extended.
But with inflation in the eurozone more since the financial crisis hammered the economy at the end of 2008, the markets expect the Bank to look beyond the debt crisis and increase the rate of 1.5% in July and once again before the end of the year.
(Written by Mike Peacock and Jan Strupczewski.) (Editing by Catherine Evans/Ruth Pitchford)
没有评论:
发表评论