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2011年6月17日星期五

Growth in the first quarter euro-zone confirmed to 0.8% (AFP)

Brussels (AFP) - economic growth of euro 17-state area was 0.8 per cent in the first three months of the year of output in the last quarter of 2010, the European Union said Wednesday.

Final confirmed figures of the Office of the EU data, Eurostat, showed an acceleration in the rate of recovery of the euro between January and March of growth of 0.3% in the previous quarter - an increase of 2.5% on the corresponding period 12 months earlier.

The figure for the euro area, despite his battle with a deep and persistent debt crisis, compares favourably with that for the United States, which has posted growth of 0.5%, and the Japan, where the economy decreased by 0.9%.

When counted up, the full EU, which also includes powerful but non-euro Member States Britain and the Poland, also logged growth of 0.8%, having hit just 0.2 percent over the last three months of last year.

In retail, household expenditure increased by only 0.3% in the euro area, the same as in the previous quarter, while exports increased by 1.8% and imports also up to 1.9 per cent.


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2011年5月21日星期六

Germany, France propel the euro area. Gulf of growth widens (Reuters)

Brussels/BERLIN (Reuters) - powerful performances by the German and French economies propelled the growth in the eurozone well above forecasts in the first quarter while also highlighting the gap between the high and low block.

The monetary area 17-nation expanded by 0.8 percent in the first three months of the year, data showed Friday, fueled by the stunning 1.5% of GDP in Germany, while the French economy grew by 1.0 %driven in part by consumer demand.

Economists had expected a 0.6% euro-zone growth. Analysts said better than expected - despite the recession return Portugal, data Greece still buried under a mountain of debts - reinforced the case to higher rates of European Central Bank in July, which would be the second this year.

Germany and the France represent domestic product gross area almost half. The two nations rebounded to a modest showing in the last quarter of 2010 when bad weather hit the exit.

The euro received a lift of the German numbers and jumped to touch $1.4330 briefly on the release of the number of the euro area.

"It is almost certainly as good as it gets for the euro area, growth seems likely to moderate in the coming months, said Howard Archer, Economist at IHS Global Insight."

The European Commission forecast quarter quarter, Eurozone growth would slow to 0.3% in the second quarter and then stabilize to 0.4% for the next two quarters.

"Nevertheless, it is now seems a very decent chance that the growth of the GDP of the euro zone will be up to 2.0% in 2011, for the first time since 2007," Archer said.

The European Commission was less optimistic, sticking to its projection of February in the growth of 1.6% this year, with inflation above target of two per cent of the ECB. In 2012, he expects a growth of 1.8% euro area.

By contrast in Germany, a top economic adviser to the Government, Wolfgang Franz, told ARD television, the country's economy could increase by 3 percent or more this year. The Commission expects German growth of 2.6% this year.

Analysts were somewhat more pessimistic on the France, saying that it was probably his high water mark.

"The recent surge in oil prices is likely to erode the purchasing power of households, while he also began the company profits, leaving its mark on the consumption and investment." In addition, we anticipate upcoming austerity more and more to the forefront, "said Joost Beaumont, an economist at ABN-AMRO.

Driveway Italy bucked the trend, only 0.1% in the first quarter, posting the same low rate as the last three months of 2010. The Government provides a 1.1% growth this year and the only 1.0% Commission.

For more indebted eurozone economies, strong growth is a distant dream.

The economy of the Portugal reduced 0.7% in the first quarter, sending the economy into recession. His Government has admitted that, after a rescue plan, its economy will decrease this year and next. The Commission expects contraction of 2.2% in 2011 and 1.8% in 2012.

The Greece actually achieved quarterly growth - 0.8% - for the first time since the end of 2009, but following a vicious contraction of 2.8% in the last quarter of 2010.

The Commission expects to Athens to announce new austerity measures this year to achieve the objectives of its rescue plan. It provides that the economy decreases 3.5 percent this year if the policies are unchanged, but anticipates a growth of 1.1% in 2012.

Spain has won support for its efforts to convince the markets he can avoid being sucked into the debt crisis - more expanded economy 0.8 percent on an annualized basis, its rate strong since the second quarter of 2008. On the quarter, growth was 0.3 per cent.

ECB SET FOR HIKING IN THE SUMMER?

Analysts, has declared that the ECB appeared ready to increase rates again in July, after having traveled for the first time in two years last month, despite the gap between rich and poor in Europe.

"The euro area will have a decent first half of the year... and I am sure that when going to the meeting of June assume no crisis in the financial sector by then, the ECB will prepare the ground for an increase in rates in July," said Ken WattretEconomist at BNP Paribas in London.

Thursday, the Monetary Fund International said that the debt crisis could extend even to core nations.

In his last report on Europe, the Fund said it is willing to give to the Greece more aid if the country needed and urges the ECB to adopt a cautious approach to the increase in rates, adding the tactic is to provide free liquidity of limit to the banks of the euro area may be necessary to be extended.

But with inflation in the eurozone more since the financial crisis hammered the economy at the end of 2008, the markets expect the Bank to look beyond the debt crisis and increase the rate of 1.5% in July and once again before the end of the year.

(Written by Mike Peacock and Jan Strupczewski.) (Editing by Catherine Evans/Ruth Pitchford)


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2011年5月12日星期四

Bank of Spain estimates Q1 growth of 0.2 pct (AP)

MADRID - the Spanish economy grew only 0.2% for the second consecutive quarter during the first three months of 2011, as exports helped offset prop economy affected by unemployment in arrow and other woes, the Central Bank said Friday.

The Bank of Spain said that the country is yet to see a "modest recovery" after almost two years of recession.

Compared to the first quarter of 2010, Spanish output was 0.7 per cent, according to estimates.

The figures provided by the Bank are an estimate which are usually followed up to a week or by the National Institute of statistics figures later. The two sets tend to agree.

The Bank says domestic demand has been recovered down slightly so that the increase in GDP in the first quarter came a boost in exports as economic partners of the economy in Spain.

Spain is faced with high unemployment in the eurozone of 21.3%, and the Government says that the figure will not start to go down until the second half of this year. The number of unemployed is a record of $ 4.9 million.

The Ministry of Finance provides the economy to grow by 1.3% in 2011, but the IMF and the Central Bank put the lower figure at 0.8 percent.

In the Friday report, the Spanish Central Bank said household consumption is low unemployment rate, decrease in property values of tightening of credit in the banks and other lenders and rising inflation eroding the purchasing power.


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2011年5月3日星期二

British economy returns to growth in the first quarter (AFP)

London (AFP)-l' British economy returns to growth in the first quarter of 2011, as planned, official data showed Wednesday, but economists warned that a weak outlook in deep reductions in government spending.

Gross domestic product (GDP) - the total value of goods and services produced in the economy - has increased by 0.5% in the first three months of 2011, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in a statement.

The economy has rebounded after a slowdown in abrupt and unexpected 0.5 per cent in the last three months of last year.

The NSO warned that growth has been largely unchanged since the third quarter of 2010, after freezing weather last December had taken a GDP estimated 0.5 percentage points in the fourth quarter.

"The figures suggest that underlying the activity in the economy stagnates fairly well," said Capital Economics Vicky Redwood Economist in response to the data.

Analysts have argued that the modest recovery was not yet strong enough to persuade the Bank of England to raise interest rates to combat high inflation, the concern about the impact of the deep state spending cuts and high prices of fuel.

"The gain of 0.5% is in line with consensus, but the increase to compensate for the decline of 0.5% in the fourth quarter - therefore GDP was flat in the last six months," capital VTB Economist Neil MacKinnon told AFP.

In the meantime, economic performance was 1.8 per cent more high between January and March, compared to the first quarter of 2010.

"In my opinion, is that the economic recovery this year is unlikely to be strong enough to justify a tightening of monetary policy, the tax reduction and the impact of high energy prices will be strong winds"said MacKinnon.

And Economist, IHS Global Insight Howard Archer described the dissemination of the data in the first quarter "disappointing".

"It is a somewhat disappointing performance, pointing to the economy being only standing together during the last two quarters."

He added: "this fuels concern on the underlying strength of the economy and its ability to resist the tax reduction."

The Bank of England voted this month to maintain his record of 0.50% low interest rates, as weak growth offset the worries of inflation.

Recent data showed that annual inflation in Britain dropped unexpectedly to 4.0% in March of 4.4% in February, reduce the pressure on the BoE to follow the European Central Bank to raise rates to combat the high prices.


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2011年4月27日星期三

This is growth, but step as we know it (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) - major blue chips, including some companies focus on the consumer, will have to show that they can counter sluggish economies developed by taking advantage of the growth in the emerging markets and technology - if Wall Street is to maintain the pace of gains this week.

Companies like Microsoft (MSFT).(O), PepsiCo (PEP).(N) and Coca-Cola (KO).(N), unloved on Wall Street, could be to reveal good buys if they can show that they justify higher assessments that investors are now ready to give them.

"If you see these Cokes and Pepsis and these sorts of names of multinational consumer post good results, I think it's going to give the impression that the stock market can overcome many of these national issues," said Nick Kalivasan analyst at MF Global in Chicago.

Before the recession, consumers and the financial sectors have benefited the massive credit expansion. Not so much more.

Growth is now concentrated in the industrial, materials, and energy stocks benefiting from strong demand in emerging markets, and a sector of technology supported by robust demand companies.

Earnings average growth across these sectors amounts to about 33 percent in the first quarter last year, according to Thomson Reuters data. It is more than double the growth estimated for the S & P 500 and towers on the growth of 5 per cent in financial sector before a weak housing market.

Investors will also want to see the less stable performance in developed markets as they gear up to this week for a Conference of press by Ben Bernanke, Chairman of US Federal Reserve. Tough questions will be asked on what monetary policy will look like after that policies of easy fed money terminated at the end of June.

EMBRACING THE UNPOPULAR

Growth is scarce and it is at the wheel of the evaluations in the sectors where it is concentrated.

Last week, investors chased a relatively expensive technology names host such as Apple (AAPL).(O) and VMware (VMW)(N) some appear to be extreme: Cloud computing company Saleforce.com (CRM.)(N) is priced at almost 300 times current profits.

The rear price-earnings ratio in the sector of the S & P materials is more than 20 times current earnings from 16.3 to the whole of the market, according to data from Thomson Reuters StarMine.

For investors as Whitney Tilson, a manager of hedge fund T2 partners in New York, which is to create opportunities in unpopular with blue chips, where he focuses his attention on the spot.

"There are many blue chip of large-cap companies are traded at moderate prices", he said.

"At a time when everyone is get enamored with cherished strong growth and commodity, it is precisely the time when looking to play defence and boring societies that we believe have a lot of growth."

One of these least favoured societies established report next week is Microsoft. The company suffers from a reputation of slow growth and its gains almost 11 times current price clearly reflects.

Comparison Microsoft with Apple, Tilson says that the former is a company inherently better because it focuses on the software with additional production costs marginal to the company of equipment for the consumer of Apple.

Apple is "a fabulous business, but I am just simply pointing out that you can have a better company, although the one is not growing faster - but always croissants nicely - for half the price in terms of price-earnings multiple," Tilson said.

Earnings blowout of Apple and exceptionally strong results of other big tech and industrial companies have led the three major U.S. stock indexes higher for a week. The blue chip Dow Jones industrial average (.)(DJI) ended the shortened week of vacation Thursday at 12,505.99, its end higher for the year and its best closing since June 5, 2008 level. For the week, Dow Jones index and the index reference Standard & Poor 500 Index (.)(SPX) each gained 1.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (.)(IXIC) climbed 2 percent.

US financial markets were closed for Friday.

GAINS FRENZY, FED TALK

This week, 180, S & P 500 companies are set to report earnings. Companies that have reported to date, 75 percent beat expectations of analysts. It's just above the average in the last four quarters, but well above the average of 62 per cent since 1994, Thomson Reuters data showed.

"As people are lower GDP figures (approximately) apparently weekly, firms are now a fairly strong income growth and margins remain intact, said Jerome Heppelmann, Portfolio Manager and investment officer head of old mutual fund targeted to Berwyn., Pennsylvania.

"I see more as a continuation of large-scale economic recovery", he said. "In some cases, the names of technology will be more exposed and more mobilized for it."

While gains drive come to fully in force, investors will also focus on the first of the Federal Reserve press conferences. The Wednesday Press Conference is scheduled to begin after the Federal Open Market Committee pricing will end his two-day meeting. Bernanke, the Fed Chairman, intends to give four sessions per year of press.

There will probably be questions asked on the type of monetary policy that the Fed will continue in its $ 600 billion bond-buying program, called quantitative easing or of2 to Wall Street, tire to its end, at the end of June.

A school of thought says that of2 led the rally in stocks and products by the subscription budget deficit and forcing the money which would have been in Treasury bills on equity markets and commodities instead.

"What happens when of2 ends and the Government begins to withdraw from this liquidity?" Tilson was asked. "How much is just artificial, based on the deficit, money-printing stimulation." And how it is really authentic? I don't know the answer, but I am concerned. ?

(Reported by Edward Krudy.) (Editing by Jan Paschal)


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